Smaller spring wheat and durum crops are expected to dent Canadian all wheat output this year.
Model-based Statistics Canada production estimates released Thursday pegged national all wheat production for this year at 35.548 million tonnes, down 1.1% from the 2024 crop of 35.939 million but still up from 33.413 million in 2023.
Most of the overall decline is due to a 2% fall in projected spring wheat output to 25.992 million tonnes. However, durum production is projected lower as well, down 4.7% to 6.078 million tonnes, although that remains well above the 2023 crop of just 4.246 million. On the other hand, national winter wheat production is estimated at 3.477 million tonnes, up a hefty 14% on the year and the largest crop since 2016 at 3.672 million.
Going into today’s report, the average trade guess for all wheat production was a bit higher at 35.9 million tonnes, with durum expected to be shown at 6 million.
At 26.338 million acres, all wheat harvested area for 2025 is expected little changed on the year, meaning all the decline in production is due to a lower average yield – down 1.2% from a year ago at 49.6 bu/acre.
For spring wheat, harvested area is estimated 1.5% lower on the year to 18.419 million acres, with the average expected yield of 51.9 bu/acre down from 52.1 bu in 2024. Durum wheat yields are expected to fall 5.1% to 35.1 bu/acre - but still above 26.5 bu in 2023 - offsetting a 0.4% increase in harvested area to 6.361 million. National winter wheat harvested area, at 1.557 million acres, is estimated up sharply from 1.288 million in 2024, although the average estimated yield of 82.1 bu/acre is down from 86.8 bu in 2024 and lowest since 2021 at 81 bu if accurate.
The 2025 Saskatchewan all wheat yield is expected to fall by 6.7% to 41.8 bu/acre, but remain above 39.5 bu in 2023, while harvested area is projected to drop by 2.4% to 13.764 million acres, resulting in a 9% decrease in production to 15.652 million tonnes.
Wheat production in Alberta is projected to climb by 12.5% to 11.176 million tonnes in 2025, as a result of higher yields (+9.8% to 52.7 bu/acre) and harvested area (+2.4% to 7.789 million acres).
In Manitoba, wheat harvested area is expected to rise by 1.3% to 3.264 million acres, while yields are anticipated to decrease by 7.4% to 60.6 bu/acre. Total wheat production is anticipated to fall by 6.2% year over year to 5.382 million tonnes.
Wheat production in Ontario (the majority of which is winter wheat) is projected to rise by 11.9% to 2.865 million tonnes year over year on higher harvested acres (+16.1% to 1.175 million acres), offsetting lower yields (-3.6% to 89.6 bu/acre). The Ontario winter wheat crop is pegged at 2.767 million tonnes, up from 2.429 million in 2024 but still below the 2023 crop of 2.847 million. The average winter wheat yield, at 91.3 bu/acre, is down from 95.8 bu last year and the lowest since 2021 at 90.9 bu.
